Documentos de Trabajo

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Open Access
4GM: A New Model for the Monetary Policy Analysis in Colombia
González-Gómez, Andrés; Guarín-López, Alexander; Rodríguez, Diego; Vargas-Herrera, Hernando; Banco de la República - Colombia
This paper introduces 4GM, a semi-structural model for monetary policy analysis and macroeconomic forecasting in Colombia. This model is based on a New-Keynesian rational expectation framework for an oil-exporting small open economy. In this paper, we present the model structure and examine the response of its variables to domestic, foreign and oil-price shocks. Further, we assess 4GM in terms of its historical shock decomposition and its out-of-sample forecasting.
This paper introduces 4GM, a semi-structural model for monetary policy analysis and macroeconomic forecasting in Colombia. This model is based on a New-Keynesian rational expectation framework for an oil-exporting small open economy. In this paper, we present the model structure and examine the response of its variables to domestic, foreign and oil-price shocks. Further, we assess 4GM in terms of its historical shock decomposition and its out-of-sample forecasting.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 31, 2020-02-28
Open Access
A trade-off from the future: How risk aversion may explain the demand for illiquid assets
Ferraz, Eduardo; Mantilla, César; Universidad del Rosario
We use a three-period model adopting a recursive definition of consumption to explore the optimal delegation that a present self, aware that her near-future self is present-biased but better informed, will make to protect her far-future self against income shocks. The model captures the present self's trade-off between using commitment mechanisms, restricting the near-future self's agency through illiquid savings, and profiting from the near-future self's better information about future shocks. Our main result states that agents with higher risk aversion can cover better against utility losses from time-inconsistent consumption through the commitment mechanism. Given the evidence of women being more risk-averse than men, this result provides the micro-foundation for the gender gap in adopting financial commitment devices, especially among single individuals.
We use a three-period model adopting a recursive definition of consumption to explore the optimal delegation that a present self, aware that her near-future self is present-biased but better informed, will make to protect her far-future self against income shocks. The model captures the present self's trade-off between using commitment mechanisms, restricting the near-future self's agency through illiquid savings, and profiting from the near-future self's better information about future shocks. Our main result states that agents with higher risk aversion can cover better against utility losses from time-inconsistent consumption through the commitment mechanism. Given the evidence of women being more risk-averse than men, this result provides the micro-foundation for the gender gap in adopting financial commitment devices, especially among single individuals.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 97, 2022-09-13
Open Access
Análisis macroeconómico de los impactos sectoriales del cambio climático en Colombia
Alvarez-Espinoza, Andrés Camilo; Calderón Díaz, Silvia Liliana; Romero Otálora, Germán; Ordoñez, Alejandro; Departamento Nacional de Planeación - Colombia
Este artículo presenta los efectos potenciales del cambio climático sobre la economía del país. A partir de datos sobre los efectos del clima futuro en la productividad de componentes de los sectores agrícola, forestal, pesquero, ganadero y de transporte se estima el impacto agregado del cambio climático en la economía del país, utilizando el Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable de Cambio Climático para Colombia (MEG4C). Los resultados muestran que el impacto sería negativo con pérdidas promedio anuales en el PIB del 0,49% en el periodo 2011 al 2100.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 58, 2020-06-19
Open Access
Aproximación a la discriminación racial en Cali: ¿se asignan salarios por color de piel?
Maya Scarpetta, Nathalia; Universidad de los Andes
En este documento se estudian las desigualdades salariales que se presentan entre individuos con diferente color de piel en Cali, Colombia. Se pretende identificar si estas desigualdades se deben a que personas de diferente color de piel son sistemáticamente distintas en características observables como el nivel educativo y el tipo de trabajo, o si se debe a factores no observables, entre los cuales podría estar la discriminación racial en el ámbito laboral. Se utilizan datos de la Encuesta de Empleo y Calidad de Vida (EECV) realizada en Cali en 2013 y se aplican dos metodologías de descomposición de la brecha salarial: una paramétrica propuesta por Blinder (1973) y Oaxaca (1973), y otra no paramétrica propuesta por Ñopo (2008). Los resultados muestran que hay una diferencia significativa entre el salario devengado por individuos de color de piel clara, intermedia y oscura, siempre a favor del tono de comparación más claro. En cuanto a la descomposición de la brecha salarial, los resultados más consistentes son los de la comparación entre claros y oscuros, ya que en las dos metodologías se evidencia que la parte de la brecha que no se puede explicar por características observables es significativa y, aproximadamente, 22% de la brecha total. Este último hallazgo evidencia una posible existencia de discriminación salarial hacia las personas por su color de piel en Cali.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 28, 2020-02-26
Open Access
Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Trade: a Machine Learning Counterfactual Analysis
Dueñas, Marco; Ortiz, Víctor; Riccaboni, Massimo; Serti, Francesco; Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano
By interpreting exporters’ dynamics as a complex learning process, this paper constitutes the first attempt to investigate the effectiveness of different Machine Learning (ML) techniques in predicting firms’ trade status. We focus on the probability of Colombian firms surviving in the export market under two different scenarios: a COVID-19 setting and a non-COVID-19 counterfactual situation. By comparing the resulting predictions, we estimate the individual treatment effect of the COVID-19 shock on firms’ outcomes. Finally, we use recursive partitioning methods to identify subgroups with differential treatment effects. We find that, besides the temporal dimension, the main factors predicting treatment heterogeneity are interactions between firm size and industry.
By interpreting exporters’ dynamics as a complex learning process, this paper constitutes the first attempt to investigate the effectiveness of different Machine Learning (ML) techniques in predicting firms’ trade status. We focus on the probability of Colombian firms surviving in the export market under two different scenarios: a COVID-19 setting and a non-COVID-19 counterfactual situation. By comparing the resulting predictions, we estimate the individual treatment effect of the COVID-19 shock on firms’ outcomes. Finally, we use recursive partitioning methods to identify subgroups with differential treatment effects. We find that, besides the temporal dimension, the main factors predicting treatment heterogeneity are interactions between firm size and industry.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No.79, 2021-04-09
Open Access
An Auction-Based Test of Private Information in an Interdealer FX Market
(Banco de la República de Colombia, 2018-09-26) Bonaldi, Pietro; Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio
There are several financial markets where dealers trade a large share of total volume, while also having access to periodic auctions of the same asset conducted by a third party. For such a market, we derive a test of private information about the value of the asset that combines data on both bidding behavior and market trades. Our approach is to test for private versus common values, as defined in auction theory. We use changes in trading prices of extreme bidders before and after the auction to test the null hypothesis of private values (no private information) against the alternative of common values (private information). Additionally, we use a regression discontinuity design where we compare the behavior of dealers bidding right below and right above the auction’s cutoff price to control for inventory effects, understood here as decreasing marginal valuations as functions of inventory. Our case study are foreign exchange auctions conducted by the Central Bank of Colombia during the period 2008-2014, and the corresponding interdealer market for the Colombian peso against the US dollar. Overall, the data does not reject the null hypothesis of private values. Specifically, information about other bidders’ valuations has no significant effect on trading prices, not even shortly after the auction takes place.
Existen varios mercados financieros en los que algunos intermediarios tranzan una gran parte del volumen total, además de tener acceso a subastas periódicas del mismo activo realizadas por un tercero. Para dicho mercado, derivamos una prueba de información privada sobre el valor del activo que combina datos sobre el comportamiento de las pujas y las transacciones de mercado. Nuestro enfoque es probar valores privados versus valores comunes, tal como se define en la teoría de subastas. Utilizamos cambios en los precios de mercado de los postores extremos antes y después de la subasta para probar la hipótesis nula de valores privados (sin información privada) frente a la alternativa de valores comunes (información privada). Además, utilizamos un diseño de regresión discontinua en el que comparamos el comportamiento de los postores que ofertan justo debajo y encima del precio de corte de la subasta para controlar por posibles efectos de inventario. Nuestro caso de estudio son las subastas de divisas realizadas por el Banco de la República de Colombia durante el periodo 2008-2014, y el mercado cambiario correspondiente de pesos-dólar. En general, nuestra prueba no rechaza la hipótesis nula de valores privados. En particular, la información revelada a los postores sobre sus valoraciones relativas no tiene un efecto sobre los precios de mercado, ni siquiera justo después del momento de la subasta.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 1, 2018-09-26
Open Access
Bank Market Power and Firm Finance: Evidence from Bank and Loan Level Data
Tamayo, Cesar E.; Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo; Valencia, Oscar; Banco de la República - Colombia; Universidad EAFIT
We present new measures of market power for the banking industry in Colombia and estimate their effect on the cost of credit for non-financial firms. Our results suggest that bank competition increased during the 2006-2008 period –even as concentration increased– but decreased thereafter. Using a unique combination of loan, firm and bank-level datasets we are also able to show that banks loosing overall market power –measured by the average price-cost margin– decrease interest rates to small firms, but increase rates to firms with which they have the oldest credit relationships. This suggests (i) the existence of market power that is specific to the bank-firm relationship (i.e., informational lock-in and hold-up problems due to switching costs), and (ii) that size may be capturing other firm attributes such as observable risk, scale effects or implicit collateral.
We present new measures of market power for the banking industry in Colombia and estimate their effect on the cost of credit for non-financial firms. Our results suggest that bank competition increased during the 2006-2008 period –even as concentration increased– but decreased thereafter. Using a unique combination of loan, firm and bank-level datasets we are also able to show that banks loosing overall market power –measured by the average price-cost margin– decrease interest rates to small firms, but increase rates to firms with which they have the oldest credit relationships. This suggests (i) the existence of market power that is specific to the bank-firm relationship (i.e., informational lock-in and hold-up problems due to switching costs), and (ii) that size may be capturing other firm attributes such as observable risk, scale effects or implicit collateral.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 20, 2019-08-29
Open Access
Bayesian Combination for Inflation Forecasts: The Effects of a Prior Based on Central Banks’ Estimates
Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando; Loaiza, Rubén; Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio; Banco de la República - Colombia
Typically, central banks use a variety of individual models (or a combination of models) when forecasting inflation rates. Most of these require excessive amounts of data, time, and computational power; all of which are scarce when monetary authorities meet to decide over policy interventions. In this paper we use a rolling Bayesian combination technique that considers inflation estimates by the staff of the Central Bank of Colombia during 2002-2011 as prior information. Our results show that: 1) the accuracy of individual models is improved by using a Bayesian shrinkage methodology, and 2) priors consisting of staff's estimates outperform all other priors that comprise equal or zero-vector weights. Consequently, our model provides readily available forecasts that exceed all individual models in terms of forecasting accuracy at every evaluated horizon.
Typically, central banks use a variety of individual models (or a combination of models) when forecasting inflation rates. Most of these require excessive amounts of data, time, and computational power; all of which are scarce when monetary authorities meet to decide over policy interventions. In this paper we use a rolling Bayesian combination technique that considers inflation estimates by the staff of the Central Bank of Colombia during 2002-2011 as prior information. Our results show that: 1) the accuracy of individual models is improved by using a Bayesian shrinkage methodology, and 2) priors consisting of staff's estimates outperform all other priors that comprise equal or zero-vector weights. Consequently, our model provides readily available forecasts that exceed all individual models in terms of forecasting accuracy at every evaluated horizon.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 8, 2014-11-20
Open Access
Bounded learning by doing, inequality, and multi-sector growth: A middle-class perspective.
(2018-07) Desdoigts, Alain; Jaramillo, Fernando; Universidad del Rosario
This study presents a multisector model of middle-class-led economic growth, whereby, on the one hand, the middle class plays a key role in determining technical progress, while, on the other hand, both its size and income share are the result of past economic growth. Learn- ing by doing, which is assumed to be sector-speci c, bounded from above, and constrained by a minimum scale restriction, is the primary source of productivity gains. The emphasis is then placed on the entire income distribution, which a¤ects the composition of demand -span of goods consumed- and in turn, the speed and the extent of the learning process in the set of goods produced. The model exhibits an inverted-U relationship between inequality and economic growth, which re ects the following trade-o¤: An economy cannot learn both quickly and simultaneously in a wide range of sectors. It is constrained in this respect by its income/skill distribution and the size of its labor force, with consequences on growth-enhancing strategies by means of income redistributions.
This study presents a multisector model of middle-class-led economic growth, whereby, on the one hand, the middle class plays a key role in determining technical progress, while, on the other hand, both its size and income share are the result of past economic growth. Learn- ing by doing, which is assumed to be sector-speci c, bounded from above, and constrained by a minimum scale restriction, is the primary source of productivity gains. The emphasis is then placed on the entire income distribution, which a¤ects the composition of demand -span of goods consumed- and in turn, the speed and the extent of the learning process in the set of goods produced. The model exhibits an inverted-U relationship between inequality and economic growth, which re ects the following trade-o¤: An economy cannot learn both quickly and simultaneously in a wide range of sectors. It is constrained in this respect by its income/skill distribution and the size of its labor force, with consequences on growth-enhancing strategies by means of income redistributions.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 4, 2018-07
Open Access
Brechas de Género en el trabajo Doméstico y de Cuidado No Remunerado en Colombia
Ospina-Cartagena, Vanessa; García-Suaza, Andrés; Universidad del Rosario
Desde el punto de vista del mercado de trabajo, la desigualdad de género no solo está representada en las diferencias de salarios, sino en el destino productivo del tiempo, en particular, el tiempo dedicado al Trabajo Doméstico y de Cuidado No Remunerado (TDCNR). Este trabajo tiene como objetivo cuantificar la desigualdad de género en el uso del tiempo en TDCNR, y explorar sus posibles determinantes, usando la Encuesta Nacional de Uso del Tiempo para Colombia. Los resultados sugieren que la brecha en el tiempo que hombres y mujeres destinan a tareas no remuneradas dependen de factores como el nivel educativo, la ocupación y la estructura familiar. Al estudiar el impacto de variables como la presencia de hijos y la participación en la generación de ingreso en el hogar, se encuentra que éstas pueden generar variaciones en la brecha de género entre 15 y 20 puntos porcentuales.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 52, 2020-06-16
Open Access
Buying a Blind Eye: Campaign Donations, Forbearance, and Deforestation in Colombia
Harding, Robin; Prem, Mounu; Ruiz, Nelson A.; Vargas, David L.; Universidad del Rosario
While existing work has demonstrated that campaign donations can buy access to benefits such as favorable legislation and preferential contracting, we highlight another use of campaign contributions: buying forbearance. Specifically, we argue that in return for campaign contributions, Colombian mayors who rely on donor-funding (compared to those who do not) choose not to enforce sanctions against illegal deforestation activities. Using a regression discontinuity design we show that deforestation is significantly higher in municipalities that elect donor-funded as opposed to self-funded politicians. Further analysis shows that only part of this effect can be explained by differences is contracting practices by donor-funded mayors. Instead, evidence from analysis of fire clearance, and of heterogeneity in the effects according to the presence of alternative formal and informal enforcement institutions, supports the interpretation that campaign contributions buy forbearance from enforcement of environmental regulations.
While existing work has demonstrated that campaign donations can buy access to benefits such as favorable legislation and preferential contracting, we highlight another use of campaign contributions: buying forbearance. Specifically, we argue that in return for campaign contributions, Colombian mayors who rely on donor-funding (compared to those who do not) choose not to enforce sanctions against illegal deforestation activities. Using a regression discontinuity design we show that deforestation is significantly higher in municipalities that elect donor-funded as opposed to self-funded politicians. Further analysis shows that only part of this effect can be explained by differences is contracting practices by donor-funded mayors. Instead, evidence from analysis of fire clearance, and of heterogeneity in the effects according to the presence of alternative formal and informal enforcement institutions, supports the interpretation that campaign contributions buy forbearance from enforcement of environmental regulations.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 84, 2021-08-17
Open Access
Cadenas globales de valor, crecimiento y protección arancelaria en Colombia
(Banco de la República de Colombia) Echavarría-Soto, Juan José; Giraldo, Iader; Jaramillo, Fernando; Universidad del Rosario; Colegio de Estudios Superiores de Administración, CESA
Este documento realiza un análisis detallado de la dispersión del arancel en Colombia, evaluando su evolución desde la implementación de la apertura económica en la década de los noventa, y presenta un marco comparativo de los niveles de dispersión del arancel nacional frente al de los países de la región. El análisis de la dispersión del arancel en Colombia, junto con los niveles de este en cada uno de los sectores de la economía nacional, servirán de insumo para la estimación de un arancel menos disperso que permita la incursión de la economía colombiana en las cadenas globales de valor.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 9, 2019-07-08
Open Access
Calidad del empleo agregado, formal e informal: un análisis para la economía colombiana en el periodo 2007 - 2019
Montoya-Arbelaez, Jaime Alberto; Jurado, Andres Julian; Universidad de Antioquia
Este trabajo presenta una medida alternativa del nivel de empleo agregado, formal e informal para la economía colombiana entre 2007 y 2019, la cual permite obtener una medida alternativa de capital humano que es llamada calidad laboral. Uno de los principales resultados es que el nivel educativo tiene un impacto altamente positivo sobre la calidad laboral agregada y por sectores. En segundo lugar, se observan importantes diferencias en la calidad laboral entre los sectores formal e informal, las cuales aumentaron durante el periodo estudiado. En tercer lugar, se evidencia que la caída en la tasa de informalidad que se ha dado en el país ha tenido efectos positivos en la calidad laboral. Finalmente, se presenta una estimación de la Productividad total de factores (PTF), considerando esta medida alternativa del empleo.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 95, 2022-08-22
Open Access
Changes in mobility and socioeconomic conditions in Bogotá city during the COVID-19 outbreak
Dueñas, Marco; Campi, Mercedes; Olmos, Luis; Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano
We analyze mobility changes following the implementation of containment measures aimed at mitigating the spread of COVID-19 in Bogotá, Colombia. We characterize the mobility network before and during the pandemic and analyze its evolution and changes between January and July 2020. We then link the observed mobility changes to socioeconomic conditions, estimating a gravity model to assess the effect of socioeconomic conditions on mobility flows. We observe an overall reduction in mobility trends, but the overall connectivity between different areas of the city remains after the lockdown, reflecting the mobility network's resilience. We find that the responses to lockdown policies depend on socioeconomic conditions. Before the pandemic, the population with better socioeconomic conditions shows higher mobility flows. Since the lockdown, mobility presents a general decrease, but the population with worse socioeconomic conditions shows lower decreases in mobility flows. We conclude deriving policy implications.
We analyze mobility changes following the implementation of containment measures aimed at mitigating the spread of COVID-19 in Bogotá, Colombia. We characterize the mobility network before and during the pandemic and analyze its evolution and changes between January and July 2020. We then link the observed mobility changes to socioeconomic conditions, estimating a gravity model to assess the effect of socioeconomic conditions on mobility flows. We observe an overall reduction in mobility trends, but the overall connectivity between different areas of the city remains after the lockdown, reflecting the mobility network's resilience. We find that the responses to lockdown policies depend on socioeconomic conditions. Before the pandemic, the population with better socioeconomic conditions shows higher mobility flows. Since the lockdown, mobility presents a general decrease, but the population with worse socioeconomic conditions shows lower decreases in mobility flows. We conclude deriving policy implications.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 62, 2020-09-01
Open Access
Chile’s Missing Students: Dictatorship, Higher Education and Social Mobility
Bautista, María Angélica; González, Felipe; Martínez, Luis R.; Muñoz, Pablo; Prem, Mounu; Universidad del Rosario
Hostile policies towards higher education are a prominent feature of authoritarian regimes. We study the capture of higher education by the military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet in Chile following the 1973 coup. We find three main results: (i) cohorts that reached college age shortly after the coup experienced a large drop in college enrollment as a result of the systematic reduction in the number of openings for incoming students decreed by the regime; (ii) these cohorts had worse economic outcomes throughout the life cycle and struggled to climb up the socioeconomic ladder, especially women; (iii) children with parents in the affected cohorts also have a substantially lower probability of college enrollment. These results demonstrate that the political capture of higher education in non-democracies hinders social mobility and leads to a persistent reduction in human capital accumulation, even after democratization.
Hostile policies towards higher education are a prominent feature of authoritarian regimes. We study the capture of higher education by the military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet in Chile following the 1973 coup. We find three main results: (i) cohorts that reached college age shortly after the coup experienced a large drop in college enrollment as a result of the systematic reduction in the number of openings for incoming students decreed by the regime; (ii) these cohorts had worse economic outcomes throughout the life cycle and struggled to climb up the socioeconomic ladder, especially women; (iii) children with parents in the affected cohorts also have a substantially lower probability of college enrollment. These results demonstrate that the political capture of higher education in non-democracies hinders social mobility and leads to a persistent reduction in human capital accumulation, even after democratization.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 42, 2020-05-15
Open Access
Climate change: policies to manage its macroeconomic and financial effects
Bernal-Ramirez, Joaquin; Ocampo, José Antonio; Banco de la República - Colombia
It is increasingly recognized that climate change generates major macroeconomic and financial risks. There are physical risks associated to the disasters generated by hydrometeorological events and to gradual but persistent changes in temperatures that have structural impacts on economic activity, productivity and incomes. Additionally, the process of adjustment towards a lower-carbon economy, prompted by changes in climate-related policies, technological disruptions and changes in consumer preferences, generates transition risks. After a brief analysis of the macroeconomic, fiscal and tax policies to manage these risks, this paper concentrates on: (i) how financial policies can help improve transparency and climate-related risk disclosure in financial institutions’ balance sheets and assets prices,particularly with appropriate prudential regulation and supervision; and (ii) how those risks could be taken into account in monetary policy and central banks’ balance sheets and operations. The paper ends with some reflections on the Covid-19 pandemic and the will for a “green” recovery.
It is increasingly recognized that climate change generates major macroeconomic and financial risks. There are physical risks associated to the disasters generated by hydrometeorological events and to gradual but persistent changes in temperatures that have structural impacts on economic activity, productivity and incomes. Additionally, the process of adjustment towards a lower-carbon economy, prompted by changes in climate-related policies, technological disruptions and changes in consumer preferences, generates transition risks. After a brief analysis of the macroeconomic, fiscal and tax policies to manage these risks, this paper concentrates on: (i) how financial policies can help improve transparency and climate-related risk disclosure in financial institutions’ balance sheets and assets prices,particularly with appropriate prudential regulation and supervision; and (ii) how those risks could be taken into account in monetary policy and central banks’ balance sheets and operations. The paper ends with some reflections on the Covid-19 pandemic and the will for a “green” recovery.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 63, 2020-09-17
Open Access
Competition policy and Industrial property: relationship through panel data approach 2007 – 2015
Herrera Saavedra, Juan Pablo; Lozano Maturana, Ginette; Campo-Robledo, Jacobo; Parra Ochoa, Catalina; Superintendencia de Industria y Comercio - Colombia
In the last century, the relation between competition and innovation has been a subject of particular interest, considering the important role that technological progress plays on economic growth and social welfare. Moreover, for several decades, the interest and discussion in regards to this matter has been the focus of heated debates among economists, jurists; and, most notably, among Competition and Industrial Property Authorities, since competition and innovation are the main axes in any modern approach to industrial policy. This paper examines the relation between competition and innovation, based on the estimation of panel data models for 75 countries between 2007 and 2015. The results show an inverted-U relation between innovation and competition. In other words, increases in competition generates innovation to a certain level (turning point) where the effect of competition on innovation is negative. This is consistent with Aghion et al. (2005) approach. The results are robust to different variables used as a proxy for innovation.
In the last century, the relation between competition and innovation has been a subject of particular interest, considering the important role that technological progress plays on economic growth and social welfare. Moreover, for several decades, the interest and discussion in regards to this matter has been the focus of heated debates among economists, jurists; and, most notably, among Competition and Industrial Property Authorities, since competition and innovation are the main axes in any modern approach to industrial policy. This paper examines the relation between competition and innovation, based on the estimation of panel data models for 75 countries between 2007 and 2015. The results show an inverted-U relation between innovation and competition. In other words, increases in competition generates innovation to a certain level (turning point) where the effect of competition on innovation is negative. This is consistent with Aghion et al. (2005) approach. The results are robust to different variables used as a proxy for innovation.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 26, 2019-12-17
Open Access
Composición de la base de inversionistas extranjeros en el mercado de deuda pública local y variaciones en la sensibilidad de las condiciones financieras domésticas
Murcia, Andrés; García-Andrade, Sebastián; Banco de la República - Colombia
En este documento se analiza la relación entre la participación de extranjeros en el mercado local de deuda pública y la sensibilidad de las condiciones financieras locales frente a cambios en factores globales. Asimismo, explora cómo la composición de esa base inversionista de no residentes y su participación en el total de agentes en el mercado podría afectar dicha sensibilidad. Los resultados sugieren que la presencia de inversionistas no residentes en el mercado de deuda pública local está correlacionada con una mayor susceptibilidad de las condiciones financieras locales a factores globales. Además, el tipo de inversionista no residente podría amplificar la sensibilidad de los mercados de deuda pública local a las condiciones financieras internacionales. Colombia es un caso en el que las condiciones financieras locales se han vuelto más sensibles ante cambios en las condiciones financieras externas. Choques internacionales podrían transmitirse a los mercados locales, y los beneficios de la participación de no residentes, como puede ser una mayor liquidez del mercado, podrían reducirse rápidamente en caso de unas condiciones financieras internacionales más restrictivas.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 87, 2022-02-18
Open Access
A Comprehensive History of Regression Discontinuity Designs: An Empirical Survey of the last 60 Years
Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio; Pinzón-Puerto, Freddy A.; Ruiz-Sánchez, María Alejandra; Banco de la República - Colombia
In this paper we detail the entire Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) history, including its origins in the 1960's, and its two main waves of formalization in the 1970's and 2000's, both of which are rarely acknowledged in the literature. Also, we dissect the empirical work into fuzzy and sharp designs and provide some intuition as to why some rule-based criteria produce imperfect compliance. Finally, we break the literature down by economic field, highlighting the main outcomes, treatments, and running variables employed. Overall, we see some topics in economics gaining importance through time, like the cases of: health, finance, crime, environment, and political economy. In particular, we highlight applications in finance as the most novel. Nonetheless, we recognize that the field of education stands out as the uncontested RDD champion through time, with the greatest number of empirical applications.
In this paper we detail the entire Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) history, including its origins in the 1960's, and its two main waves of formalization in the 1970's and 2000's, both of which are rarely acknowledged in the literature. Also, we dissect the empirical work into fuzzy and sharp designs and provide some intuition as to why some rule-based criteria produce imperfect compliance. Finally, we break the literature down by economic field, highlighting the main outcomes, treatments, and running variables employed. Overall, we see some topics in economics gaining importance through time, like the cases of: health, finance, crime, environment, and political economy. In particular, we highlight applications in finance as the most novel. Nonetheless, we recognize that the field of education stands out as the uncontested RDD champion through time, with the greatest number of empirical applications.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 38, 2020-04-20
Open Access
Construcción de la matriz de contabilidad social de agua como insumo económico
Alvarez-Espinoza, Andrés Camilo; Romero Otálora, Germán; Riveros Salcedo, Leidy Cáterin; Melo Leon, Sioux Fanny; Ordoñez, Daniel; Departamento Nacional de Planeación - Colombia
En este documento se presentan los procedimientos y aspectos a considerar para construir una Matriz de Contabilidad Social para el año 2012, que incorpore la información de las Cuentas Nacionales de Agua generadas por el DANE. Con esta herramienta es posible establecer el uso del recurso hídrico en la economía e identificar los efectos que sobre ésta tendría posibles cambios en su demanda o en su precio. Este trabajo se basa en la información del Estudio Nacional del Agua y en el Sistema de Cuentas Ambientales Económicas del Agua, para obtener la demanda por el recurso hídrico dentro de la economía. Por su parte, utiliza los reportes de la Tasa por Uso de Agua para plantear cinco propuestas de precios que permitirían cuantificar monetariamente esa demanda e incorporarla dentro de la matriz a construir. Finalmente, se presentan algunos agregados de la economía que se derivan del ejercicio realizado.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 57, 2020-06-17

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