Documentos de Trabajo

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Open Access
Green Jobs and the Green Transition in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Labor Market Analysis Using Job Vacancy Data
García-Suaza, Andrés; Caiza-Guamán, Pamela; Sarango-Iturralde, Alexander; Romero-Torres, Bernardo; Buitrago, Catalina; Universidad del Rosario
The green transition represents one of the most significant transformational forces in the labor market in the coming years. This paper analyzes the incidence of green jobs in four Latin American countries using information from job vacancy data. The results reveal a low incidence of demand for jobs with green potential or for new and emerging occupations related to the green transition. Such occupations are characterized by requiring high levels of education and offer a significant wage premium. These results highlight the main challenge of the green transition, which lies in the need to implement training processes, while revealing opportunities for the creation of high-quality jobs in the region.
The green transition represents one of the most significant transformational forces in the labor market in the coming years. This paper analyzes the incidence of green jobs in four Latin American countries using information from job vacancy data. The results reveal a low incidence of demand for jobs with green potential or for new and emerging occupations related to the green transition. Such occupations are characterized by requiring high levels of education and offer a significant wage premium. These results highlight the main challenge of the green transition, which lies in the need to implement training processes, while revealing opportunities for the creation of high-quality jobs in the region.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 118, 2025-07-24
Open Access
Las mujeres en la banca central: El caso del Banco de la República de Colombia, 1923-2023
Iregui-Bohórquez, Ana María; Ramírez-Giraldo, María Teresa; Caicedo-Silva, Sara Isabel; Banco de la República - Colombia
Este artículo analiza la trayectoria de las mujeres en el Banco de la República de Colombia a lo largo de sus 100 años de historia, y examina la experiencia de otros bancos centrales en el mundo para proporcionar un contexto internacional. Dado el escaso registro histórico sobre patrones de género en los bancos centrales, especialmente en América Latina, este documento contribuye en parte a llenar este vacío, al recopilar la historia de las empleadas de la institución. Se abordan temas como la participación laboral femenina, los cambios en las normas sociales y culturales, la educación, el papel pionero de las primeras empleadas en los bancos centrales, su desarrollo profesional y su representación en cargos directivos. Se encuentra que la evolución del empleo femenino en el Banco de la República sigue un patrón similar al de otros bancos centrales, donde la relación de las mujeres con sus empleos ha evolucionado hacia la construcción de una carrera profesional.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 117, 2025-07-24
Open Access
Understanding the relationship between women’s education and fertility decline: Evidence from Colombia
Jaramillo-Echeverri, Juliana; Banco de la República - Colombia
Across the world educated women tend to have fewer children than their less-educated peers. This paper provides new stylised facts about the long-run relationship between women’s education and fertility at both the national and individual levels. I focus on Colombia, a country that experienced both a rapid fertility decline and fast expansion of education in the mid-20th century and I use data from the censuses of 1973, 1985, 1993, 2005 and 2018. The findings caution that the relationship between fertility and women’s education is not always monotonic and this relationship changes significantly depending on the aggregation of the data. At the individual level, the relationship between education and fertility holds strongly and education increases the probability of remaining childless, reduces the total number of children and the likelihood of having a birth at a younger and older age, suggesting a strong trade-off between education and fertility. Peer effects, such as the percentage of peers with secondary education, are ruled out, which suggests that the externalities of education had a moderate effect on uneducated women. On the other hand, at the national level, the fertility decline cannot be explained by education as fertility has fallen continuously in all educational groups since 1965.Across the world educated women tend to have fewer children than their less-educated peers. This paper provides new stylised facts about the long-run relationship between women’s education and fertility at both the national and individual levels. I focus on Colombia, a country that experienced both a rapid fertility decline and fast expansion of education in the mid-20th century and I use data from the censuses of 1973, 1985, 1993, 2005 and 2018. The findings caution that the relationship between fertility and women’s education is not always monotonic and this relationship changes significantly depending on the aggregation of the data. At the individual level, the relationship between education and fertility holds strongly and education increases the probability of remaining childless, reduces the total number of children and the likelihood of having a birth at a younger and older age, suggesting a strong trade-off between education and fertility. Peer effects, such as the percentage of peers with secondary education, are ruled out, which suggests that the externalities of education had a moderate effect on uneducated women. On the other hand, at the national level, the fertility decline cannot be explained by education as fertility has fallen continuously in all educational groups since 1965.
Across the world educated women tend to have fewer children than their less-educated peers. This paper provides new stylised facts about the long-run relationship between women’s education and fertility at both the national and individual levels. I focus on Colombia, a country that experienced both a rapid fertility decline and fast expansion of education in the mid-20th century and I use data from the censuses of 1973, 1985, 1993, 2005 and 2018. The findings caution that the relationship between fertility and women’s education is not always monotonic and this relationship changes significantly depending on the aggregation of the data. At the individual level, the relationship between education and fertility holds strongly and education increases the probability of remaining childless, reduces the total number of children and the likelihood of having a birth at a younger and older age, suggesting a strong trade-off between education and fertility. Peer effects, such as the percentage of peers with secondary education, are ruled out, which suggests that the externalities of education had a moderate effect on uneducated women. On the other hand, at the national level, the fertility decline cannot be explained by education as fertility has fallen continuously in all educational groups since 1965.Across the world educated women tend to have fewer children than their less-educated peers. This paper provides new stylised facts about the long-run relationship between women’s education and fertility at both the national and individual levels. I focus on Colombia, a country that experienced both a rapid fertility decline and fast expansion of education in the mid-20th century and I use data from the censuses of 1973, 1985, 1993, 2005 and 2018. The findings caution that the relationship between fertility and women’s education is not always monotonic and this relationship changes significantly depending on the aggregation of the data. At the individual level, the relationship between education and fertility holds strongly and education increases the probability of remaining childless, reduces the total number of children and the likelihood of having a birth at a younger and older age, suggesting a strong trade-off between education and fertility. Peer effects, such as the percentage of peers with secondary education, are ruled out, which suggests that the externalities of education had a moderate effect on uneducated women. On the other hand, at the national level, the fertility decline cannot be explained by education as fertility has fallen continuously in all educational groups since 1965.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 116, 2025-07-24
Open Access
Historia del desarrollo urbano de La Matuna en Cartagena, 1890 - 2022
Bonet-Morón, Jaime; Parra-Solano, Andrés Felipe; Banco de la República - Colombia
La Matuna es un área situada en el corazón del casco histórico de Cartagena, entre El Centro, San Diego y Getsemaní, lo cual la convierte en una zona de especial interés para la ciudad. A pesar de su localización y algunas construcciones que se dieron a finales del siglo XIX y comienzos del XX, la urbanización es relativamente reciente pues inició formalmente en 1952. Este documento describe el desarrollo urbano que tuvo La Matuna en Cartagena entre 1890 y 2022, explicando los cambios ocurridos y los principales factores que influyeron en su evolución. Los resultados muestran que el proceso de urbanización de La Matuna parece estar asociado a dos aspectos fundamentales de la ciudad: (i) los cambios económicos y sociales; y (ii) la evolución de la planificación urbana. Por un lado, los auges y declives económicos determinaron la demanda por suelo urbano a lo largo del periodo analizado. Además, los planes de urbanismo también afectaron la dinámica de urbanización del sector por los estímulos establecidos en las normas urbanas definidas en los años de estudio para los distintos sectores de la ciudad.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 115, 2025-07-23
Open Access
Expenditure Responses to Adverse Health Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of Colombian Households
Cortés, Darwin; Gallegos, Andrés; Pérez Pérez, Jorge; Universidad del Rosario
We analyze the e ect of adverse health shocks on households' expenditure shares in different good categories using a xed-e ects approach and a structural approach based on microeconomic theory. We nd that, on average, households substitute health and food expenditure in response to adverse health shocks. Our estimates unveil substantial heterogeneity in this trade-o mediated by access to social protection, job contract type, and urban or rural location. Households from rural areas -where household heads are more likely to hold informal jobs and lack access to safety nets- engage in more substitution of food expenditure for health expenditure than others. Our ndings suggest that access to formal employment and a higher quality of local institutions can help mitigate the negative consequences of health shocks for households.
We analyze the e ect of adverse health shocks on households' expenditure shares in different good categories using a xed-e ects approach and a structural approach based on microeconomic theory. We nd that, on average, households substitute health and food expenditure in response to adverse health shocks. Our estimates unveil substantial heterogeneity in this trade-o mediated by access to social protection, job contract type, and urban or rural location. Households from rural areas -where household heads are more likely to hold informal jobs and lack access to safety nets- engage in more substitution of food expenditure for health expenditure than others. Our ndings suggest that access to formal employment and a higher quality of local institutions can help mitigate the negative consequences of health shocks for households.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 114, 2025-06-25
Open Access
Unequal Impacts of AI on Colombia's Labor Market: An Analysis of AI Exposure, Wages, and Job Dynamics
García-Suaza, Andrés; Sarango-Iturralde, Alexander; Caiza-Guamán, Pamela; Gil Díaz, Mateo; Acosta Castillo, Dana; Universidad del Rosario
The rapid advancements in the domain of artificial intelligence (AI) have exerted a considerable influence on the labor market, thereby engendering alterations in the demand for specific skills and the structure of employment. This study aims to evaluate the extent of exposure to AI within the Colombian labor market and its relation with workforce characteristics and available job openings. To this end, we built a specific AI exposure index or Colombia based on skill demand in job posts. Our findings indicate that 33.8% of workers are highly exposed to AI, with variations observed depending on the measurement method employed. Furthermore, it is revealed a positive and significant correlation between AI exposure and wages, i.e., highly exposed to AI earn a wage premium of 21.8%. On the demand side, only 2.5% of job openings explicitly mention AI-related skills. These findings imply that international indices may underestimate the wage premium associated with AI exposure in Colombia and underscore the potential unequal effects on wages distribution among different demographic groups.
The rapid advancements in the domain of artificial intelligence (AI) have exerted a considerable influence on the labor market, thereby engendering alterations in the demand for specific skills and the structure of employment. This study aims to evaluate the extent of exposure to AI within the Colombian labor market and its relation with workforce characteristics and available job openings. To this end, we built a specific AI exposure index or Colombia based on skill demand in job posts. Our findings indicate that 33.8% of workers are highly exposed to AI, with variations observed depending on the measurement method employed. Furthermore, it is revealed a positive and significant correlation between AI exposure and wages, i.e., highly exposed to AI earn a wage premium of 21.8%. On the demand side, only 2.5% of job openings explicitly mention AI-related skills. These findings imply that international indices may underestimate the wage premium associated with AI exposure in Colombia and underscore the potential unequal effects on wages distribution among different demographic groups.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 113, 2025-05-07
Open Access
Foreign investment dynamics: The impact of benchmark-driven versus unconstrained investors on local credit conditions
Botero-Ramírez, Oscar David; Murcia, Andrés; Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio; Banco de la República - Colombia
We examine the impact of foreign investor heterogeneity on local lending, focusing on Colombia from 2014 to 2023. Distinguishing between benchmark-driven and unconstrained investors, we highlight their differing responses to global and idiosyncratic shocks. Using bond-level data and the corporate credit registry, we link banks’ exposure to foreign flows with firm-level lending decisions. By decomposing Colombia’s weight in the J.P. Morgan GBI-EM index into valuation and exogenous components, we identify how investor behavior shapes bank balance sheets. Our main findings show that banks with greater exposure to unconstrained investors significantly expand lending during capital inflows, whereas those linked to benchmark-driven investors exhibit a more muted response. These results emphasize the role of investor composition in financial stability and provide key insights for policymakers in emerging markets.
We examine the impact of foreign investor heterogeneity on local lending, focusing on Colombia from 2014 to 2023. Distinguishing between benchmark-driven and unconstrained investors, we highlight their differing responses to global and idiosyncratic shocks. Using bond-level data and the corporate credit registry, we link banks’ exposure to foreign flows with firm-level lending decisions. By decomposing Colombia’s weight in the J.P. Morgan GBI-EM index into valuation and exogenous components, we identify how investor behavior shapes bank balance sheets. Our main findings show that banks with greater exposure to unconstrained investors significantly expand lending during capital inflows, whereas those linked to benchmark-driven investors exhibit a more muted response. These results emphasize the role of investor composition in financial stability and provide key insights for policymakers in emerging markets.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 112, 2025-05-07
Open Access
Fuerza de trabajo y envejecimiento poblacional
Parra Polanía, Julián Andrés; Ladino Riveros, Juan David; Banco de la República - Colombia
Este documento presenta proyecciones de la fuerza laboral (o fuerza de trabajo) en Colombia hasta 2070, en el contexto del cambio demográfico y sus implicaciones económicas. Los cálculos se hacen a partir de microdatos de la Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares (GEIH), proyecciones poblacionales del DANE y estimaciones de la CEPAL sobre la evolución futura de la fuerza laboral colombiana hasta 2050. Adicionalmente, se consideran escenarios alternativos que incorporan la reciente disminución de la tasa de nacimientos en el país. Con base en las proyecciones originales de población total del DANE, la fuerza de trabajo comenzaría a disminuir a partir del año 2054. No obstante, en los escenarios alternativos, el comienzo de esta reducción se anticiparía alrededor de 10 años, ocurriendo entre 2043 y 2045. En todos los escenarios alternativos, la fuerza de trabajo continuará creciendo a una tasa superior a la de la población total durante un par de décadas más.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 111, 2025-04-22
Open Access
Macroeconomic and Fiscal Effects of Increased Efficiency in Medicine Procurement: A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Colombian Health System
Ávila-Montealegre, Oscar; Bauhoff, Sebastian; Botero, Jesús; Giles Álvarez, Laura; León-Moncada, Santiago; Larrahondo, Cristhian; Lozano-Espitia, Luis Ignacio; Melo-Becerra, Ligia Alba; Ortiz-Hoyos, José Luis; Rodríguez-Ávila, Jesús; Banco de la República - Colombia
This study analyzes the macroeconomic and fiscal effects of greater efficiency in medicines procurement in Colombia, using both static (computable) and dynamic general equilibrium models. The findings indicate that implementing an efficient drug procurement policy could reduce the total health system spending, with potential savings of up to 8.4% in the short term and up to 10.8% in the long term. These savings could be reinvested within the health system, allocated to other sectors, or used to reduce tax burden on capital, consumption, or social contributions. The latter option would increase production by up to 1.1%, investment by 1.7% and consumption by 0.8%. Potential measures to achieve such efficiency gains include promoting and purchasing generic drugs, conducting joint procurement, and implementing price regulation.
This study analyzes the macroeconomic and fiscal effects of greater efficiency in medicines procurement in Colombia, using both static (computable) and dynamic general equilibrium models. The findings indicate that implementing an efficient drug procurement policy could reduce the total health system spending, with potential savings of up to 8.4% in the short term and up to 10.8% in the long term. These savings could be reinvested within the health system, allocated to other sectors, or used to reduce tax burden on capital, consumption, or social contributions. The latter option would increase production by up to 1.1%, investment by 1.7% and consumption by 0.8%. Potential measures to achieve such efficiency gains include promoting and purchasing generic drugs, conducting joint procurement, and implementing price regulation.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 110, 2025-01-15
Open Access
Descripción, antecedentes y riesgo fiscal y macroeconómico del Proyecto de Acto Legislativo que modifica el Sistema General de Participaciones (SGP) *
Ospina-Tejeiro, Juan José; Bejarano, Jesús; Herrera-Rojas, Andrés Nicolás; Quintero-Jácome, Manuela; López-Valenzuela, David Camilo; Ramos-Forero, Jorge Enrique; Zapata-Álvarez, Steven; Banco de la República - Colombia
Este documento hace un recuento breve de la evolución histórica del Sistema General de Participaciones (SGP) en Colombia y presenta una descripción del Proyecto de Acto Legislativo (PAL) que se está discutiendo en el Congreso, el cual propone aumentar los recursos del SGP que el Gobierno Nacional transfiere anualmente a los territorios. En este contexto, se realiza una estimación cuantitativa del impacto fiscal y macroeconómico de esta iniciativa, según la cual, en ausencia de una reducción permanente del gasto del GNC por reasignación de competencias, la senda de la deuda pública sería creciente, con exigencias cada vez mayores para cumplir la regla fiscal, poniendo en riesgo la sostenibilidad fiscal. El aumento de la deuda resultaría en aumentos en los costos de financiamiento de la economía y tendría impactos negativos significativos sobre la capacidad productiva de la economía. El aumento en el riesgo de insostenibilidad de la deuda pública es aún mayor si se tiene en cuenta la incertidumbre sobre los ingresos fiscales a futuro y que la economía es vulnerable a choques adversos. La capacidad de respuesta contracíclica de la política fiscal y de la política monetaria a estos choques se vería reducida por el muy probable aumento de la deuda y la inflexibilidad del gasto que implica el PAL.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 109, 2024-12-02
Open Access
Signaling Specific Skills and the Labor Market of College Graduates
Busso, Matias; Montaño, Sebastián; Muñoz-Morales, Juan
We use census-like data and a regression discontinuity design to study the labor market impacts of a signal provided by a government-sponsored award given to top-performing students on a nationwide college exit exam in Colombia. Students who can signal their high level of specific skills earn seven to ten percent more than identical students lacking such a signal. The signal allows workers to find jobs in more productive firms and sectors that better use their skills. The positive returns persist for up to five years. The signal favors workers from less advantaged groups who enter the market with weaker signals.
We use census-like data and a regression discontinuity design to study the labor market impacts of a signal provided by a government-sponsored award given to top-performing students on a nationwide college exit exam in Colombia. Students who can signal their high level of specific skills earn seven to ten percent more than identical students lacking such a signal. The signal allows workers to find jobs in more productive firms and sectors that better use their skills. The positive returns persist for up to five years. The signal favors workers from less advantaged groups who enter the market with weaker signals.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 108, 2023-09-13
Open Access
The monetary and macroprudential policy framework in Colombia in the last 30 years: the lessons learnt and the challenges for the future
Gomez-Pineda, Javier Guillermo; Murcia, Andrés; Cabrera-Rodríguez, Wilmar Alexander; Vargas-Herrera, Hernando; Villar-Gómez, Leonardo; Banco de la República - Colombia
Over the past 30 years, monetary and macroprudential policy in Colombia evolved towards the pursuit of a low and credible inflation target and a stable financial system. The protracted inflation that began in the early seventies was defeated at the turn of the century with the help of the new framework for monetary policy formulation, inflation targeting. In the field of macroprudential policy, the financial crisis of the late nineties led to important institutional developments in the formulation and coordination of macroprudential policy, as well as in the assessment of systemic risk. Along with these developments, important lessons have been learnt. One is that, to preserve macroeconomic stability, the price stability objective must be complemented with the financial stability objective, as well as with macroprudential policy. Another lesson is that the new institutional framework for monetary policy formulation helped Banco de la República overcome 25 years of inflation, then called moderate inflation. The challenges for the future include to continue preserving price and financial stability, strengthening the role of the Banco de la República in macroprudential policy, and to continue strengthening the channels of international coordination and cooperation in macroprudential policy.
Over the past 30 years, monetary and macroprudential policy in Colombia evolved towards the pursuit of a low and credible inflation target and a stable financial system. The protracted inflation that began in the early seventies was defeated at the turn of the century with the help of the new framework for monetary policy formulation, inflation targeting. In the field of macroprudential policy, the financial crisis of the late nineties led to important institutional developments in the formulation and coordination of macroprudential policy, as well as in the assessment of systemic risk. Along with these developments, important lessons have been learnt. One is that, to preserve macroeconomic stability, the price stability objective must be complemented with the financial stability objective, as well as with macroprudential policy. Another lesson is that the new institutional framework for monetary policy formulation helped Banco de la República overcome 25 years of inflation, then called moderate inflation. The challenges for the future include to continue preserving price and financial stability, strengthening the role of the Banco de la República in macroprudential policy, and to continue strengthening the channels of international coordination and cooperation in macroprudential policy.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 107, 2023-07-04
Open Access
State-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through
Carrière-Swallow, Yan; Firat, Melih; Furceri, Davide; Jiménez, Daniel
We estimate how the rate of pass-through from the exchange rate to domestic prices varies across states of the economy and depends on the shocks that drive fluctuations in the exchange rate. We confirm several results from the literature and uncover new facts. Drawing on the experience of a large sample of advanced and emerging market economies over the past 30 years, we document that exchange rate pass-through is significantly larger during periods of high inflation and elevated uncertainty. Using a novel identification strategy, we also show that pass-through is higher when exchange rate fluctuations are driven by U.S. monetary policy.
We estimate how the rate of pass-through from the exchange rate to domestic prices varies across states of the economy and depends on the shocks that drive fluctuations in the exchange rate. We confirm several results from the literature and uncover new facts. Drawing on the experience of a large sample of advanced and emerging market economies over the past 30 years, we document that exchange rate pass-through is significantly larger during periods of high inflation and elevated uncertainty. Using a novel identification strategy, we also show that pass-through is higher when exchange rate fluctuations are driven by U.S. monetary policy.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No.106, 2023-05-18
Open Access
The Global Financial Cycle and Country Risk in Emerging Markets During Stress Episodes: A Copula-CoVaR Approach
Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando; Romero-Chamorro, José Vicente; Ramírez-González, Mahicol Stiben; Banco de la República - Colombia
In this paper,we analyze the tail-dependence structure of credit default swaps (CDS) and the global financial cycle for a group of eleven emerging markets. Using a Copula-CoVaR model,we provide evidence that there is a significant taildependence between variables related with the global financial cycle, such as the VIX, and emerging market CDS. These results are particularly important in the context of distressed global financial markets (right tail of the distributions of the VIX) because they provide international investors with relevant information on how to rebalance their portfolios and a more suitable metric to analyze sovereign risk that goes beyond the traditional CoVaR. Additionally, we present further evidence supporting the importance of the global financial cycle in sovereign risk dynamics.
In this paper,we analyze the tail-dependence structure of credit default swaps (CDS) and the global financial cycle for a group of eleven emerging markets. Using a Copula-CoVaR model,we provide evidence that there is a significant taildependence between variables related with the global financial cycle, such as the VIX, and emerging market CDS. These results are particularly important in the context of distressed global financial markets (right tail of the distributions of the VIX) because they provide international investors with relevant information on how to rebalance their portfolios and a more suitable metric to analyze sovereign risk that goes beyond the traditional CoVaR. Additionally, we present further evidence supporting the importance of the global financial cycle in sovereign risk dynamics.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 105, 2023-05-08
Open Access
Introduction to the Symposium on the Shadow Economy, Tax Behaviour, and Institutions
Granda-Carvajal, Catalina; Kogler, Christoph; Universidad de Antioquia
This JOIE Symposium features some of the most influential papers presented in the 7th version of the conference on The Shadow Economy, Tax Behaviour and Institutions. Accordingly, it brings together contributions from several disciplines and schools of thought in the social sciences and the humanities exploring such issues as the role of formal and informal institutions in understanding the shadow economy, the importance of social aversion in the motivations for tax compliance, and the dual nature of corruption. This introduction lays out the scope of the symposium, summarises the preceding literature on the topic, and provides a brief outline of each contributing article, noting that, although each paper focuses on a different economic and cultural context, they share several elements in common with alternative theories addressing the institutional, psychological, and sociological aspects of tax law compliance and other appropriate behaviours.
This JOIE Symposium features some of the most influential papers presented in the 7th version of the conference on The Shadow Economy, Tax Behaviour and Institutions. Accordingly, it brings together contributions from several disciplines and schools of thought in the social sciences and the humanities exploring such issues as the role of formal and informal institutions in understanding the shadow economy, the importance of social aversion in the motivations for tax compliance, and the dual nature of corruption. This introduction lays out the scope of the symposium, summarises the preceding literature on the topic, and provides a brief outline of each contributing article, noting that, although each paper focuses on a different economic and cultural context, they share several elements in common with alternative theories addressing the institutional, psychological, and sociological aspects of tax law compliance and other appropriate behaviours.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 104, 2023-05-03
Open Access
Evolución de las transferencias monetarias en Colombia
Acosta, Karina; Taboada-Arango, Bibiana; Otero-Cortés, Andrea; Bonet-Morón, Jaime; Banco de la República - Colombia
Los programas de protección social se han convertido en una herramienta indispensable y muy efectiva para mejorar las condiciones de vida de la población en situación de pobreza y vulnerabilidad. Este documento revisa los cinco principales programas de transferencias monetarias en Colombia, y estudia su historia, focalización, cobertura, operatividad y los compromisos fiscales derivados de su implementación. Asimismo, hace una revisión de las evaluaciones de impacto de estos programas y sus resultados en múltiples indicadores sociales. Este trabajo es un primer intento de consolidar la información existente sobre el tema en Colombia, que permite entender de manera comprehensiva el alcance y retos de estos programas, así como identificar posibles áreas de investigación y mejoras.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 103, 2023-04-24
Open Access
Young Politicians and Long-Term Policy
Dahis, Ricardo; de las Heras, Ivan; Saavedra, Santiago; Universidad del Rosario
A fundamental difficulty in policy-making is that policies often have costs today but benefits far into the future. This difficulty is particularly salient to climate change and environmental conservation policy. A critical dimension in this trade-off is the age of politicians, which impacts their life expectancy, career concerns, and what education they received. We study this trade-off in the case of Brazilian mayors and environmental outcomes, using a regression discontinuity design for close elections. We find that when a young politician is elected, there is a reduction in deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions, without significant effects on municipal gross domestic product. Young politicians allocate more spending to education and reducing liabilities, suggesting that the time horizon is important. Our study of mechanisms suggests young mayors matter because they belong to a new cohort, not because of age per se.
A fundamental difficulty in policy-making is that policies often have costs today but benefits far into the future. This difficulty is particularly salient to climate change and environmental conservation policy. A critical dimension in this trade-off is the age of politicians, which impacts their life expectancy, career concerns, and what education they received. We study this trade-off in the case of Brazilian mayors and environmental outcomes, using a regression discontinuity design for close elections. We find that when a young politician is elected, there is a reduction in deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions, without significant effects on municipal gross domestic product. Young politicians allocate more spending to education and reducing liabilities, suggesting that the time horizon is important. Our study of mechanisms suggests young mayors matter because they belong to a new cohort, not because of age per se.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 102, 2023-02-10
Open Access
The Leading Role of Bank Supply Shock
Bonilla-Mejía, Leonardo; Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio; Ruiz-Sánchez, María Alejandra; Banco de la República - Colombia
This paper studies the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on corporate credit in Colombia. We first exploit the geographic and temporal variation in the disease spread to estimate the effect of local exposure to the virus on credit. Our estimates indicate that neither local exposure to the virus, nor the sector-specific mobility restrictions had an impact on credit. We then assess the role of bank supply shocks. We create a measure of bank exposure, reflecting the geographic heterogeneity in pandemic vulnerability and deposits, and estimate its effect on credit. Results indicate that bank-supply shocks account for a credit contraction of approximately 5.2%. To further disentangle the role of bank supply shock, we control for the interaction between firm and time fixed-effects and restrict the sample to municipalities that were relatively spared from the pandemic, finding similar results. Most of the bank supply effects are driven by firms that are small, young, and have relatively low liquidity.
This paper studies the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on corporate credit in Colombia. We first exploit the geographic and temporal variation in the disease spread to estimate the effect of local exposure to the virus on credit. Our estimates indicate that neither local exposure to the virus, nor the sector-specific mobility restrictions had an impact on credit. We then assess the role of bank supply shocks. We create a measure of bank exposure, reflecting the geographic heterogeneity in pandemic vulnerability and deposits, and estimate its effect on credit. Results indicate that bank-supply shocks account for a credit contraction of approximately 5.2%. To further disentangle the role of bank supply shock, we control for the interaction between firm and time fixed-effects and restrict the sample to municipalities that were relatively spared from the pandemic, finding similar results. Most of the bank supply effects are driven by firms that are small, young, and have relatively low liquidity.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 101, 2023-02-08
Open Access
El efecto de cambios en la regulación del mercado mayorista de electricidad en Colombia en un modelo estructural de subastas complejas
Balat, Jorge; Carranza, Juan Esteban; Martin, Juan David; Riascos, Alvaro J; Banco de la República - Colombia
En este documento investigamos los efectos de un cambio en la regulación del mercado spot de electricidad en Colombia, que tuvo lugar en 2009. Específicamente, la regulación cambió de un esquema de subastas simples a uno de subastas complejas para permitir a los generadores hacer ofertas separadas de los componentes fijos y variables de sus costos. El aumento en la flexibilidad tuvo como objeto la reducci´on de las ineficiencias que resultan de las no-convexidades en las estructuras de costos de los generadores térmicos. Estimamos y computamos un modelos estructural que cuantifica los efectos de este cambio en la eficiencia del despacho de energía y en los precios mayoristas. De forma consistente con resultados descriptivos previos, encontramos que bajo el nuevo mecanismo de despacho se incrementó la eficiencia, pero los precios se incrementaron
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 100, 2023-02-06
Open Access
COVID-19 and assimilation: an analysis of immigration from Venezuelan in Colombia
García-Suaza, Andrés; Gallego, Juan Miguel; Mayorga, Juan D.; Mondragón-Mayo, Angie; Sepúlveda, Carlos; Sarango-Iturralde, Alexander; Universidad del Rosario
The increase in global immigration phenomena has impacted local labor markets. The process of social and economic assimilation is crucial to ensure the well-being of both natives and immigrants. This article analyzes the impacts of immigration from Venezuela to Colombia, differentiating the effects of recent and long-term immigration on natives and immigrants. We find that immigration has decreased employment and hourly wages; and increased informality, while the impact on unemployment is null. These effects are higher among immigrants in comparison with the native population. Our results show that even when adverse effects on labor market outcomes are estimated, there is evidence of adaptability to the immigration shock and that an assimilation process is taking place.
The increase in global immigration phenomena has impacted local labor markets. The process of social and economic assimilation is crucial to ensure the well-being of both natives and immigrants. This article analyzes the impacts of immigration from Venezuela to Colombia, differentiating the effects of recent and long-term immigration on natives and immigrants. We find that immigration has decreased employment and hourly wages; and increased informality, while the impact on unemployment is null. These effects are higher among immigrants in comparison with the native population. Our results show that even when adverse effects on labor market outcomes are estimated, there is evidence of adaptability to the immigration shock and that an assimilation process is taking place.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 99, 2022-11-01

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