4GM: A New Model for the Monetary Policy Analysis in Colombia
Authors
González-Gómez, Andrés
Guarín-López, Alexander
Rodríguez, Diego
Vargas-Herrera, Hernando
Editor
Publication date
2020-02-28
Document language
eng
Publisher
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Abstract
This paper introduces 4GM, a semi-structural model for monetary policy analysis and macroeconomic forecasting in Colombia. This model is based on a New-Keynesian rational expectation framework for an oil-exporting small open economy. In this paper, we present the model structure and examine the response of its variables to domestic, foreign and oil-price shocks. Further, we assess 4GM in terms of its historical shock decomposition and its out-of-sample forecasting.
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Códigos JEL
E17 - General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Application, E37 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Application, E47 - Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Application, E52 - Monetary Policy, E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
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Keywords
Semi-structural model, Monetary policy, Macroeconomic forecasting
