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Browsing by Author "Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio"

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Open Access
An Auction-Based Test of Private Information in an Interdealer FX Market
(Banco de la República de Colombia, 2018-09-26) Bonaldi, Pietro; Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio
There are several financial markets where dealers trade a large share of total volume, while also having access to periodic auctions of the same asset conducted by a third party. For such a market, we derive a test of private information about the value of the asset that combines data on both bidding behavior and market trades. Our approach is to test for private versus common values, as defined in auction theory. We use changes in trading prices of extreme bidders before and after the auction to test the null hypothesis of private values (no private information) against the alternative of common values (private information). Additionally, we use a regression discontinuity design where we compare the behavior of dealers bidding right below and right above the auction’s cutoff price to control for inventory effects, understood here as decreasing marginal valuations as functions of inventory. Our case study are foreign exchange auctions conducted by the Central Bank of Colombia during the period 2008-2014, and the corresponding interdealer market for the Colombian peso against the US dollar. Overall, the data does not reject the null hypothesis of private values. Specifically, information about other bidders’ valuations has no significant effect on trading prices, not even shortly after the auction takes place.
Existen varios mercados financieros en los que algunos intermediarios tranzan una gran parte del volumen total, además de tener acceso a subastas periódicas del mismo activo realizadas por un tercero. Para dicho mercado, derivamos una prueba de información privada sobre el valor del activo que combina datos sobre el comportamiento de las pujas y las transacciones de mercado. Nuestro enfoque es probar valores privados versus valores comunes, tal como se define en la teoría de subastas. Utilizamos cambios en los precios de mercado de los postores extremos antes y después de la subasta para probar la hipótesis nula de valores privados (sin información privada) frente a la alternativa de valores comunes (información privada). Además, utilizamos un diseño de regresión discontinua en el que comparamos el comportamiento de los postores que ofertan justo debajo y encima del precio de corte de la subasta para controlar por posibles efectos de inventario. Nuestro caso de estudio son las subastas de divisas realizadas por el Banco de la República de Colombia durante el periodo 2008-2014, y el mercado cambiario correspondiente de pesos-dólar. En general, nuestra prueba no rechaza la hipótesis nula de valores privados. En particular, la información revelada a los postores sobre sus valoraciones relativas no tiene un efecto sobre los precios de mercado, ni siquiera justo después del momento de la subasta.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 1, 2018-09-26
Open Access
Superando barreras: el impacto del crédito en el sector agrario en Colombia
(Banco de la República, 2018-07-17) Echavarría-Soto, Juan José; Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio; Restrepo-Tamayo, Sara; McAllister-Harker, Daniela; Hernández-Leal, Juan David; Echavarría-Soto, Juan José; Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio; Restrepo-Tamayo, Sara; Banco de la República - Colombia
Esta obra es una contribución destacada al análisis del impacto del crédito agropecuario sobre las condiciones de vida en el campo colombiano. Los estudios aquí consignados forman parte de los esfuerzos que el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) viene apoyando mediante el diseño e implementación de evaluaciones de impacto exhaustivas, con el objetivo de mejorar los programas de política pública en la materia. Asimismo, evidencian el esfuerzo colaborativo de instituciones y expertos de diversas áreas, en el que se emplearon metodologías analíticas de punta y una profusa fuente de datos provenientes del Censo nacional agropecuario (CNA) de 2014, articulados a los del Sistema de Información Cafetera (SICA), el Fondo para el Financiamiento del Sector Agropecuario (Finagro) y el Sistema de Identificación de Potenciales Beneficiarios de Programas Sociales (Sisbén). En materia de crédito, este valioso conjunto de estudios pone de relieve la baja cobertura de los préstamos, tanto para el sector agropecuario en general como para los productores cafeteros en particular. El escaso acceso a este activo productivo es considerado una importante barrera para el desarrollo con equidad del campo colombiano; se reitera la alta pobreza que caracteriza a los habitantes del campo, tal como se refleja en el alto índice de pobreza multidimensional, los bajos niveles educativos y la bajísima proporción de los habitantes rurales que tienen acceso al sistema contributivo de salud, aunque con una alta cobertura del régimen subsidiado, que garantiza acceso virtualmente universal al sistema de seguridad social en salud. Todo lo anterior corrobora que el acceso al crédito tiene efectos positivos claramente significativos: se destina en su mayoría a inversión, lo que deriva en un aumento en la productividad y reduce la pobreza multidimensional. Por ende, se resalta la importancia del acceso como un mecanismo esencial de inclusión productiva, una tarea que demanda más atención en el país. Como complemento a esta breve descripción, en la contracubierta del libro el público lector podrá conocer algunas apreciaciones y comentarios analíticos de académicos y personas representantes del sector agro colombiano acerca del significativo impacto de esta obra en relación con la realidad actual.
Libro RIEC Primera edición, 2018-07-17
Open Access
Bayesian Combination for Inflation Forecasts: The Effects of a Prior Based on Central Banks’ Estimates
Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando; Loaiza, Rubén; Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio; Banco de la República - Colombia
Typically, central banks use a variety of individual models (or a combination of models) when forecasting inflation rates. Most of these require excessive amounts of data, time, and computational power; all of which are scarce when monetary authorities meet to decide over policy interventions. In this paper we use a rolling Bayesian combination technique that considers inflation estimates by the staff of the Central Bank of Colombia during 2002-2011 as prior information. Our results show that: 1) the accuracy of individual models is improved by using a Bayesian shrinkage methodology, and 2) priors consisting of staff's estimates outperform all other priors that comprise equal or zero-vector weights. Consequently, our model provides readily available forecasts that exceed all individual models in terms of forecasting accuracy at every evaluated horizon.
Typically, central banks use a variety of individual models (or a combination of models) when forecasting inflation rates. Most of these require excessive amounts of data, time, and computational power; all of which are scarce when monetary authorities meet to decide over policy interventions. In this paper we use a rolling Bayesian combination technique that considers inflation estimates by the staff of the Central Bank of Colombia during 2002-2011 as prior information. Our results show that: 1) the accuracy of individual models is improved by using a Bayesian shrinkage methodology, and 2) priors consisting of staff's estimates outperform all other priors that comprise equal or zero-vector weights. Consequently, our model provides readily available forecasts that exceed all individual models in terms of forecasting accuracy at every evaluated horizon.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 8, 2014-11-20
Open Access
A Comprehensive History of Regression Discontinuity Designs: An Empirical Survey of the last 60 Years
Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio; Pinzón-Puerto, Freddy A.; Ruiz-Sánchez, María Alejandra; Banco de la República - Colombia
In this paper we detail the entire Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) history, including its origins in the 1960's, and its two main waves of formalization in the 1970's and 2000's, both of which are rarely acknowledged in the literature. Also, we dissect the empirical work into fuzzy and sharp designs and provide some intuition as to why some rule-based criteria produce imperfect compliance. Finally, we break the literature down by economic field, highlighting the main outcomes, treatments, and running variables employed. Overall, we see some topics in economics gaining importance through time, like the cases of: health, finance, crime, environment, and political economy. In particular, we highlight applications in finance as the most novel. Nonetheless, we recognize that the field of education stands out as the uncontested RDD champion through time, with the greatest number of empirical applications.
In this paper we detail the entire Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) history, including its origins in the 1960's, and its two main waves of formalization in the 1970's and 2000's, both of which are rarely acknowledged in the literature. Also, we dissect the empirical work into fuzzy and sharp designs and provide some intuition as to why some rule-based criteria produce imperfect compliance. Finally, we break the literature down by economic field, highlighting the main outcomes, treatments, and running variables employed. Overall, we see some topics in economics gaining importance through time, like the cases of: health, finance, crime, environment, and political economy. In particular, we highlight applications in finance as the most novel. Nonetheless, we recognize that the field of education stands out as the uncontested RDD champion through time, with the greatest number of empirical applications.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 38, 2020-04-20
Open Access
Post-graduation from the original sin problem The effects of market participation on sovereign debt markets
Ocampo, José Antonio; Orbegozo, German D.; Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio; Banco de la República - Colombia
We evaluate the effects of the sovereign debt structure by examining various degrees of bond market participation and diversification within different bond maturities and investor type. We use a unique Colombian panel dataset, comprised of all government bond maturities in the hands of public and private institutions during 2006-2018. For identification, we propose an instrumental variable approach, specific to each investor group. We find that an increase in non-residents' market share of a 1 percentage point reduces bond yields by 35% and lowers volatility by 0.8%, relative to their mean values. Alternatively, we see an opposite effect for both pension funds and the banking sector. Finally, we find that market concentration makes local-currency yields more sensitive to global financial shocks.
We evaluate the effects of the sovereign debt structure by examining various degrees of bond market participation and diversification within different bond maturities and investor type. We use a unique Colombian panel dataset, comprised of all government bond maturities in the hands of public and private institutions during 2006-2018. For identification, we propose an instrumental variable approach, specific to each investor group. We find that an increase in non-residents' market share of a 1 percentage point reduces bond yields by 35% and lowers volatility by 0.8%, relative to their mean values. Alternatively, we see an opposite effect for both pension funds and the banking sector. Finally, we find that market concentration makes local-currency yields more sensitive to global financial shocks.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 39, 2020-04-20
Open Access
Sustainability as a Policy Tool
Villamizar, Rodrigo; Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio; Arango-Lozano, Lucía; Castelblanco, Geraldine; Banco de la República - Colombia
In this policy note we propose a new country-based sustainability index comprised of three main drivers: climate change, energy use, and resource depletion. We argue that increases in clean energy intensity (clean energy per dollar of GDP), decreases in carbon intensity (carbon emission per dollar of GDP), and water intensity (water used per dollar of GDP) significantly affect sustainability. Supplementary, we compare our proposed index with macroeconomic indicators like GDP, Income per capita and other development indices such as the Human Development Index and the GINI, showing marked differences, which we interpret as unexplored areas for sustainable gains.
In this policy note we propose a new country-based sustainability index comprised of three main drivers: climate change, energy use, and resource depletion. We argue that increases in clean energy intensity (clean energy per dollar of GDP), decreases in carbon intensity (carbon emission per dollar of GDP), and water intensity (water used per dollar of GDP) significantly affect sustainability. Supplementary, we compare our proposed index with macroeconomic indicators like GDP, Income per capita and other development indices such as the Human Development Index and the GINI, showing marked differences, which we interpret as unexplored areas for sustainable gains.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 82, 2021-07-15
Open Access
Covid-19 consecuencias y desafíos en la economía colombiana. Una mirada desde las universidades
(Banco de la República - Colombia) Cortés, Darwin; Posso-Suárez, Christian Manuel; Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio; Carranza, Juan Esteban; Martin-Ocampo, Juan D; Riascos, Alvaro J; Botero, Jesús; Arellano Morales, Matheo; Montañez, Diego; González-Auhing, Marcos; Bonet-Morón, Jaime; Ricciulli, Diana; Pérez-Valbuena, Gerson Javier; Galvis-Aponte, Luis Armando; Haddad, Eduardo; Araújo, Inácio; Perobelli, Fernando; Morales-Zurita, Leonardo Fabio; Bonilla-Mejía, Leonardo; Pulido, José David; Flórez, Luz Adriana; Lasso-Valderrama, Francisco Javier; Hermida-Giraldo, Didier; Pulido-Mahecha, Karen L; Cardenas Rubio, Jeisson Arley; Montaña Doncel, Jaime; García-Suaza, Andrés; Jaramillo-Jassir, Iván Daniel; Londoño, Diana Isabel; Ortiz, Santiago; Rodríguez-Lesmes, Paul; Alfaro, Laura; Eslava, Marcela; Becerra, Oscar; Gallegos, Andrés; Londoño, Diana Isabel; Fuentes Vélez, Mariana; González, Felipe; Pérez Pulgarín, Stiven; Andia, Tatiana; Criado, Leonel; Mantilla, César; Molano, Andrés; Abadía, Luz Karime; Bernal, Gloria; Gómez, Silvia; Alonso, Santiago; Rodríguez A., Sandra; Diartt, Carolina; Blattman, Christopher; Cerero, David; Duncan, Gustavo; Hernández, Sebastián; Lessing, Benjamin; Martínez, Juan F; Mesa-Mejía, Juan Pablo; Montoya, Helena; Tobón, Santiago; Alvarez-Espinoza, Andrés Camilo; Zambrano, Andrés; Zuleta, Hernando; Sierra, Lya Paola; Vidal, Pavel; Cerón, Julieth; Sánchez-Salazar; Cristian Andrés; López-González, Cristina; Torres-Gómez, Edwin Esteban; Torres-Gorrón, Jhon Edwar; López-González, Mauricio; Quintero-Fragozo, Camilo; Rodríguez-Puello, Gabriel; Espinosa-Espinosa, Aarón; Banco de la República - Colombia; Universidad del Rosario
Este libro reúne diferentes hallazgos, perspectivas y efectos ante un fenómeno que, más de un año después, todavía representa un reto científico, médico y social para todos. Igualmente, esta obra representa el objetivo de la Red Investigadores de Economía: aunar esfuerzos para encontrar respuestas y para fortalecer la investigación en el país, aumentar la difusión de trabajos de calidad y propiciar el encuentro entre académicos, universidades y el Banco de la República. Las investigaciones expuestas en este libro pasaron por un proceso de selección por parte del comité científico, asegurando que hubiese una pluralidad de miradas y de instituciones educativas, además del Banco, donde se relacionaran los efectos de la pandemia y la actividad económica en el país, las consecuencias sociales y regionales. El texto está dividido en cuatro partes. En la primera se hace un análisis macroe-conómico de los efectos de la pandemia; para ello se examinan los efectos de la emergencia sanitaria a nivel nacional y regional mediante modelos macroeconómicos que permiten obtener respuestas ante preguntas muy relevantes. La segunda sección trata sobre el impacto en el mercado laboral, el efecto del Covid-19 en la distribución del ingreso y el efecto de corto plazo en el mercado urbano. La tercera parte aborda los efectos de la pandemia en los agentes económicos y en otros mercados. Ello incluye la exposición del empleo al Covid-19, la vulnerabilidad económica de los hogares en el país y su respuesta en el consumo, patrones de actividad laboral y salud mental, efectos en la educación, inseguridad alimentaria de la población migrante, entre otros. Por último, el cuarto segmento hace un énfasis especial en los efectos diferenciales entre las regiones del país y la heterogeneidad de dicho impacto; para ello se analizan temas de informalidad, vulnerabilidad, fuerza de trabajo disponible, entre otros, en distintas regiones del país.
Libro RIEC , 2022-04-28
Open Access
The effects of Monetary Policy on Capital Flows A Meta-Analysis
Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio; Arango-Lozano, Lucía; Castelblanco, Geraldine; Fajardo-Baquero, Nicolás; Ruiz-Sánchez, María Alejandra; Banco de la República - Colombia
We investigate whether central banks are able to attract or redirect capital flows, by bringing together the entire empirical literature into the first quantitative meta-analysis on the subject. We dissect policy effects by the type of flow and by the origin of the monetary shock. Further, we assess whether policy effects depend on factors that drive investors to either search for yields or fly to safety. Our findings indicate a mean effect size of inflows in the amount of 0.09% of quarterly GDP in response to either a 100 basis point (bp) increase in the domestic policy rate or a 100bp reduction in the external rate. However, the effect size under a random effect specification is much lower (0.01%). Factors that significantly attract inflows include foreign exchange reserves, output growth, and financial openness, while factors that deter flows include foreign debt, capital controls, and departures from the uncovered interest rate parity. Also, both local and global risks matter (global risks exerting a larger pressure). Finally, we shed light on differences across the different types of flows: banking flows being the most responsive to monetary policy, while foreign direct investment being the least responsive.
We investigate whether central banks are able to attract or redirect capital flows, by bringing together the entire empirical literature into the first quantitative meta-analysis on the subject. We dissect policy effects by the type of flow and by the origin of the monetary shock. Further, we assess whether policy effects depend on factors that drive investors to either search for yields or fly to safety. Our findings indicate a mean effect size of inflows in the amount of 0.09% of quarterly GDP in response to either a 100 basis point (bp) increase in the domestic policy rate or a 100bp reduction in the external rate. However, the effect size under a random effect specification is much lower (0.01%). Factors that significantly attract inflows include foreign exchange reserves, output growth, and financial openness, while factors that deter flows include foreign debt, capital controls, and departures from the uncovered interest rate parity. Also, both local and global risks matter (global risks exerting a larger pressure). Finally, we shed light on differences across the different types of flows: banking flows being the most responsive to monetary policy, while foreign direct investment being the least responsive.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 93, 2022-08-22
Open Access
The Leading Role of Bank Supply Shocks
Bonilla-Mejía, Leonardo; Ruiz-Sánchez, María Alejandra; Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio; Banco de la República - Colombia
This paper studies the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on corporate credit in Colombia. We first exploit the geographic and temporal variation in the disease spread to estimate the effect of local exposure to the virus on credit. Our estimates indicate that neither local exposure to the virus, nor the sector-specific mobility restrictions had an impact on credit. We then assess the role of bank supply shocks. We create a measure of bank exposure, reflecting the geographic heterogeneity in pandemic vulnerability and deposits, and estimate its effect on credit. Results indicate that bank-supply shocks account for a credit contraction of approximately 5.2%. To further disentangle the role of bank supply shock, we control for the interaction between firm and time fixed-effects and restrict the sample to municipalities that were relatively spared from the pandemic, finding similar results. Most of the bank supply effects are driven by firms that are small, young, and have relatively low liquidity.
This paper studies the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on corporate credit in Colombia. We first exploit the geographic and temporal variation in the disease spread to estimate the effect of local exposure to the virus on credit. Our estimates indicate that neither local exposure to the virus, nor the sector-specific mobility restrictions had an impact on credit. We then assess the role of bank supply shocks. We create a measure of bank exposure, reflecting the geographic heterogeneity in pandemic vulnerability and deposits, and estimate its effect on credit. Results indicate that bank-supply shocks account for a credit contraction of approximately 5.2%. To further disentangle the role of bank supply shock, we control for the interaction between firm and time fixed-effects and restrict the sample to municipalities that were relatively spared from the pandemic, finding similar results. Most of the bank supply effects are driven by firms that are small, young, and have relatively low liquidity.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 94, 2022-08-22
Open Access
The Leading Role of Bank Supply Shock
Bonilla-Mejía, Leonardo; Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio; Ruiz-Sánchez, María Alejandra; Banco de la República - Colombia
This paper studies the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on corporate credit in Colombia. We first exploit the geographic and temporal variation in the disease spread to estimate the effect of local exposure to the virus on credit. Our estimates indicate that neither local exposure to the virus, nor the sector-specific mobility restrictions had an impact on credit. We then assess the role of bank supply shocks. We create a measure of bank exposure, reflecting the geographic heterogeneity in pandemic vulnerability and deposits, and estimate its effect on credit. Results indicate that bank-supply shocks account for a credit contraction of approximately 5.2%. To further disentangle the role of bank supply shock, we control for the interaction between firm and time fixed-effects and restrict the sample to municipalities that were relatively spared from the pandemic, finding similar results. Most of the bank supply effects are driven by firms that are small, young, and have relatively low liquidity.
This paper studies the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on corporate credit in Colombia. We first exploit the geographic and temporal variation in the disease spread to estimate the effect of local exposure to the virus on credit. Our estimates indicate that neither local exposure to the virus, nor the sector-specific mobility restrictions had an impact on credit. We then assess the role of bank supply shocks. We create a measure of bank exposure, reflecting the geographic heterogeneity in pandemic vulnerability and deposits, and estimate its effect on credit. Results indicate that bank-supply shocks account for a credit contraction of approximately 5.2%. To further disentangle the role of bank supply shock, we control for the interaction between firm and time fixed-effects and restrict the sample to municipalities that were relatively spared from the pandemic, finding similar results. Most of the bank supply effects are driven by firms that are small, young, and have relatively low liquidity.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 101, 2023-02-08
Open Access
Mitos y realidades de la política monetaria
(Banco de la República) Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio; Taboada-Arango, Bibiana
Los capítulos del libro abarcan un amplio rango de temas monetarios, tanto convencionales como no convencionales. Además, introducen la discusión de temas de política monetaria que solo recientemente se han estudiado con detenimiento en círculos académicos y de hacedores de política. También revisan las complejas interrelaciones entre variables macroeconómicas clave y sus implicaciones de política pública. Los autores organizan sus 25 capítulos y 3 recuadros en torno a preguntas centrales de la teoría monetaria, como la compleja relación entre la inflación, el empleo y el crecimiento del producto. También analizan las bondades para la economía colombiana de un sistema de tasa de cambio flexible, sin descartar la posibilidad de intervenir en el mercado cambiario cuando las condiciones de la economía lo ameriten. Este libro presenta de manera rigurosa, didáctica y amena diversos ensayos sobre temas propios de la banca central que afectan de manera directa o indirecta el bienestar de la gente.
Libro RIEC , 2024-11-22
Open Access
Foreign investment dynamics: The impact of benchmark-driven versus unconstrained investors on local credit conditions
Botero-Ramírez, Oscar David; Murcia, Andrés; Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio; Banco de la República - Colombia
We examine the impact of foreign investor heterogeneity on local lending, focusing on Colombia from 2014 to 2023. Distinguishing between benchmark-driven and unconstrained investors, we highlight their differing responses to global and idiosyncratic shocks. Using bond-level data and the corporate credit registry, we link banks’ exposure to foreign flows with firm-level lending decisions. By decomposing Colombia’s weight in the J.P. Morgan GBI-EM index into valuation and exogenous components, we identify how investor behavior shapes bank balance sheets. Our main findings show that banks with greater exposure to unconstrained investors significantly expand lending during capital inflows, whereas those linked to benchmark-driven investors exhibit a more muted response. These results emphasize the role of investor composition in financial stability and provide key insights for policymakers in emerging markets.
We examine the impact of foreign investor heterogeneity on local lending, focusing on Colombia from 2014 to 2023. Distinguishing between benchmark-driven and unconstrained investors, we highlight their differing responses to global and idiosyncratic shocks. Using bond-level data and the corporate credit registry, we link banks’ exposure to foreign flows with firm-level lending decisions. By decomposing Colombia’s weight in the J.P. Morgan GBI-EM index into valuation and exogenous components, we identify how investor behavior shapes bank balance sheets. Our main findings show that banks with greater exposure to unconstrained investors significantly expand lending during capital inflows, whereas those linked to benchmark-driven investors exhibit a more muted response. These results emphasize the role of investor composition in financial stability and provide key insights for policymakers in emerging markets.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 112, 2025-05-07

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