Recent Submissions
Open Access
Expenditure Responses to Adverse Health Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of Colombian Households
Cortés, Darwin; Gallegos, Andrés; Pérez Pérez, Jorge; Universidad del Rosario
We analyze the e ect of adverse health shocks on households' expenditure shares in different good categories using a xed-e ects approach and a structural approach based on microeconomic theory. We nd that, on average, households substitute health and food expenditure in response to adverse health shocks. Our estimates unveil substantial heterogeneity in this trade-o mediated by access to social protection, job contract type, and urban or rural location. Households from rural areas -where household heads are more likely to hold informal jobs and lack access to safety nets- engage in more substitution of food expenditure for health expenditure than others. Our ndings suggest that access to formal employment and a higher quality of local institutions can help mitigate the negative consequences of health shocks for households.
We analyze the e ect of adverse health shocks on households' expenditure shares in different good categories using a xed-e ects approach and a structural approach based on microeconomic theory. We nd that, on average, households substitute health and food expenditure in response to adverse health shocks. Our estimates unveil substantial heterogeneity in this trade-o mediated by access to social protection, job contract type, and urban or rural location. Households from rural areas -where household heads are more likely to hold informal jobs and lack access to safety nets- engage in more substitution of food expenditure for health expenditure than others. Our ndings suggest that access to formal employment and a higher quality of local institutions can help mitigate the negative consequences of health shocks for households.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 114, 2025-06-25
Open Access
Unequal Impacts of AI on Colombia's Labor Market: An Analysis of AI Exposure, Wages, and Job Dynamics
García-Suaza, Andrés; Sarango Iturralde, Alexander; Caiza-Guamán, Pamela; Gil Díaz, Mateo; Acosta Castillo, Dana; Universidad del Rosario
The rapid advancements in the domain of artificial intelligence (AI) have exerted a considerable influence on the labor market, thereby engendering alterations in the demand for specific skills and the structure of employment. This study aims to evaluate the extent of exposure to AI within the Colombian labor market and its relation with workforce characteristics and available job openings. To this end, we built a specific AI exposure index or Colombia based on skill demand in job posts. Our findings indicate that 33.8% of workers are highly exposed to AI, with variations observed depending on the measurement method employed. Furthermore, it is revealed a positive and significant correlation between AI exposure and wages, i.e., highly exposed to AI earn a wage premium of 21.8%. On the demand side, only 2.5% of job openings explicitly mention AI-related skills. These findings imply that international indices may underestimate the wage premium associated with AI exposure in Colombia and underscore the potential unequal effects on wages distribution among different demographic groups.
The rapid advancements in the domain of artificial intelligence (AI) have exerted a considerable influence on the labor market, thereby engendering alterations in the demand for specific skills and the structure of employment. This study aims to evaluate the extent of exposure to AI within the Colombian labor market and its relation with workforce characteristics and available job openings. To this end, we built a specific AI exposure index or Colombia based on skill demand in job posts. Our findings indicate that 33.8% of workers are highly exposed to AI, with variations observed depending on the measurement method employed. Furthermore, it is revealed a positive and significant correlation between AI exposure and wages, i.e., highly exposed to AI earn a wage premium of 21.8%. On the demand side, only 2.5% of job openings explicitly mention AI-related skills. These findings imply that international indices may underestimate the wage premium associated with AI exposure in Colombia and underscore the potential unequal effects on wages distribution among different demographic groups.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 113, 2025-05-07
Open Access
Foreign investment dynamics: The impact of benchmark-driven versus unconstrained investors on local credit conditions
Botero-Ramírez, Oscar David; Murcia, Andrés; Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio; Banco de la República - Colombia
We examine the impact of foreign investor heterogeneity on local lending, focusing on Colombia from 2014 to 2023. Distinguishing between benchmark-driven and unconstrained investors, we highlight their differing responses to global and idiosyncratic shocks. Using bond-level data and the corporate credit registry, we link banks’ exposure to foreign flows with firm-level lending decisions. By decomposing Colombia’s weight in the J.P. Morgan GBI-EM index into valuation and exogenous components, we identify how investor behavior shapes bank balance sheets. Our main findings show that banks with greater exposure to unconstrained investors significantly expand lending during capital inflows, whereas those linked to benchmark-driven investors exhibit a more muted response. These results emphasize the role of investor composition in financial stability and provide key insights for policymakers in emerging markets.
We examine the impact of foreign investor heterogeneity on local lending, focusing on Colombia from 2014 to 2023. Distinguishing between benchmark-driven and unconstrained investors, we highlight their differing responses to global and idiosyncratic shocks. Using bond-level data and the corporate credit registry, we link banks’ exposure to foreign flows with firm-level lending decisions. By decomposing Colombia’s weight in the J.P. Morgan GBI-EM index into valuation and exogenous components, we identify how investor behavior shapes bank balance sheets. Our main findings show that banks with greater exposure to unconstrained investors significantly expand lending during capital inflows, whereas those linked to benchmark-driven investors exhibit a more muted response. These results emphasize the role of investor composition in financial stability and provide key insights for policymakers in emerging markets.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 112, 2025-05-07
Open Access
Fuerza de trabajo y envejecimiento poblacional
Parra Polanía, Julián Andrés; Ladino Riveros, Juan David; Banco de la República - Colombia
Este documento presenta proyecciones de la fuerza laboral (o fuerza de trabajo) en Colombia hasta 2070, en el contexto del cambio demográfico y sus implicaciones económicas. Los cálculos se hacen a partir de microdatos de la Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares (GEIH), proyecciones poblacionales del DANE y estimaciones de la CEPAL sobre la evolución futura de la fuerza laboral colombiana hasta 2050. Adicionalmente, se consideran escenarios alternativos que incorporan la reciente disminución de la tasa de nacimientos en el país. Con base en las proyecciones originales de población total del DANE, la fuerza de trabajo comenzaría a disminuir a partir del año 2054. No obstante, en los escenarios alternativos, el comienzo de esta reducción se anticiparía alrededor de 10 años, ocurriendo entre 2043 y 2045. En todos los escenarios alternativos, la fuerza de trabajo continuará creciendo a una tasa superior a la de la población total durante un par de décadas más.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 111, 2025-04-22
Open Access
Macroeconomic and Fiscal Effects of Increased Efficiency in Medicine Procurement: A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Colombian Health System
Ávila-Montealegre, Oscar; Bauhoff, Sebastian; Botero, Jesús; Giles Álvarez, Laura; León-Moncada, Santiago; Larrahondo, Cristhian; Lozano-Espitia, Luis Ignacio; Melo-Becerra, Ligia Alba; Ortiz-Hoyos, José Luis; Rodríguez-Ávila, Jesús; Banco de la República - Colombia
This study analyzes the macroeconomic and fiscal effects of greater efficiency in medicines procurement in Colombia, using both static (computable) and dynamic general equilibrium models. The findings indicate that implementing an efficient drug procurement policy could reduce the total health system spending, with potential savings of up to 8.4% in the short term and up to 10.8% in the long term. These savings could be reinvested within the health system, allocated to other sectors, or used to reduce tax burden on capital, consumption, or social contributions. The latter option would increase production by up to 1.1%, investment by 1.7% and consumption by 0.8%. Potential measures to achieve such efficiency gains include promoting and purchasing generic drugs, conducting joint procurement, and implementing price regulation.
This study analyzes the macroeconomic and fiscal effects of greater efficiency in medicines procurement in Colombia, using both static (computable) and dynamic general equilibrium models. The findings indicate that implementing an efficient drug procurement policy could reduce the total health system spending, with potential savings of up to 8.4% in the short term and up to 10.8% in the long term. These savings could be reinvested within the health system, allocated to other sectors, or used to reduce tax burden on capital, consumption, or social contributions. The latter option would increase production by up to 1.1%, investment by 1.7% and consumption by 0.8%. Potential measures to achieve such efficiency gains include promoting and purchasing generic drugs, conducting joint procurement, and implementing price regulation.
Documentos de Trabajo RIEC - No. 110, 2025-01-15