2020-02-282020-02-282020-02-28https://repositorio.redinvestigadores.org/handle/Riec/50This paper introduces 4GM, a semi-structural model for monetary policy analysis and macroeconomic forecasting in Colombia. This model is based on a New-Keynesian rational expectation framework for an oil-exporting small open economy. In this paper, we present the model structure and examine the response of its variables to domestic, foreign and oil-price shocks. Further, we assess 4GM in terms of its historical shock decomposition and its out-of-sample forecasting.23 páginasPDFengOpen AccessWorking paperE17 - General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and ApplicationE37 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and ApplicationE47 - Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and ApplicationE52 - Monetary PolicyE58 - Central Banks and Their PoliciesSemi-structural modelMonetary policyMacroeconomic forecastingPolítica monetaria -- ColombiaSistema monetario -- ColombiaBancos centrales -- ColombiaAcceso abiertoAtribucion-NoComercial-CompartirIgual CC BY-NC-SA 4.0